A senior political figure outlined a plan currently under consideration by strategists at the Maximos Mansion that carries high risk yet appears as a logical option once the polling figures of New Democracy (ND) fail to favor the ruling party.
What is the plan?
Within New Democracy, officials recognize that the 30% threshold is unattainable.
The actual polling range of ND stands between 24% and 26%... with the 25% threshold, it should be recalled, activating the sliding scale seat bonus.
At 24%, full simple proportional representation applies.
In the baseline scenario, 9 to 10 parties appear poised to enter Parliament, with Tsipras having secured second place beyond dispute, PASOK ranking third, and Symmachia Ellinon backed by Kasidiaris polling at 8%.
Within ND, strategists understand that the elections on May 9 or May 16, 2027 will trigger a political earthquake.
There are three reasons.
1) ND is on a clearly downward trajectory, dropping from the 40.3% range down to 24% to 26%, losing 1.3 million voters.
2) Symmachia Ellinon, supported by Ilias Kasidiaris, has caused a major shock.
In internal polls possessed by both ND and Tsipras, it registers at 8% with upward momentum.
Symmachia Ellinon can either facilitate or derail the strategic designs of ND.
3) The Samaras party, set to be announced in February 2027, draws votes directly from ND and is projected to approach 7% or even 8%.
It will capture disaffected ND voters who self-identify as right-wing, stripping roughly 3 to 4 percentage points from ND.
Samaras strikes a direct and critical blow to the electoral share of ND.
With the Samaras 2012 model and two ballots, the plan of ND
Within ND, strategists believe the Samaras scenario of 2012 can be replicated, when on May 6, 2012 ND received 18.85% and 108 seats, followed in the second elections of June 2012 by 29.66% and 129 seats.
They calculate that if ND polls around 26%, it should proceed to a second ballot betting on reaching 28% to 30%.
The same scenario is examined even if ND receives 24%, though there is a risk... that citizens may not behave as they did in 2012, when the bankruptcy of Greece created urgent necessities for governance, while the Memorandum regime and the collapse of the banks endangered the Hellenic State.
However, 2027 is not 2012.
A punitive voting dynamic could prevail, causing ND to lose even further ground in a second ballot to Samaras and Symmachia Ellinon.
The second-ballot scenario will depend on the outcome of the first, yet the grave danger remains that the 2012 precedent fails to repeat and punitive voting dominates in 2027.
At 8%, Kasidiaris cannot be barred
A massive issue is the societal traction of Kasidiaris, given that the real electoral share of Symmachia Ellinon stands at 8%.
Many, indeed nearly most observers, will argue that whether at 5%, 8%, or 10%, Mitsotakis will ban Symmachia Ellinon, intervening with the Supreme Court (Areios Pagos) to disqualify the party, altering parliamentary balances and seizing the 24 seats corresponding to 8%.
Others will warn that attempting to bar a party polling at 8% will provoke widespread anger across society and the youth... triggering severe tremors in the democratic functioning of the country.
Yet there is something even more serious.
It is entirely logical to assume that Kasidiaris expects to be barred, given that 5 tailored laws have already been enacted...
Consequently, he has prepared contingency plans, one of which alarms the Maximos Mansion and Mitsotakis... namely, what would Kasidiaris do if disqualified?
He would throw his weight behind a fierce opponent of Mitsotakis, and many understand precisely who is meant.
In that eventuality, the shock for ND would be even greater than allowing the party to contest the elections.
Caught between a rock and a hard place for ND... is Kasidiaris... who easily commands 500,000 voters.
The pieces on the chessboard have been placed and... Kasidiaris backs a party possessing leadership, elected MPs, full awareness of the disqualification risk, and preparations... for checkmate.
There is no bluff here; there is an active, concrete plan.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών